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Aston Villa
W W W D L
VS
AI Predicts: 2-1
Away

Sunderland
L D D L L
1X2 Aston Villa 54%
O/U Over 2.5 63%
DC 1X 82%
BTTS Yes 64%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Aston Villa 54% Draw 21% Sunderland 25%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Aston Villa and Sunderland?

Our prediction for the Aston Villa–Sunderland match is: Aston Villa to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Aston Villa to win (54% confidence); over 2.5 goals (63% confidence); both teams to score: yes (64% confidence)

Aston Villa

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Aston Villa scored an average of 1.40 goals and conceded 1.20 per match.

Sunderland

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Sunderland scored an average of 0.40 goals and conceded 1.60 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Home or Draw (1X): Aston Villa scored 1.40 and conceded 1.20 per match across 5 covered games; Sunderland scored 0.40 and conceded 1.60 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, N. Jackson contributed 3 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.26/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 4 recent recorded appearances, N. Angulo contributed 0 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.66/10 across 4 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Aston Villa records a mean of 6.49/10 versus 6.34/10 for Sunderland.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list Unai Emery for Aston Villa and R. Le Bris for Sunderland. The latest recorded formations are Aston Villa in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 3, 2026) and Sunderland in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 5, 2026). Across 11 recent matches with possession and shot data, Aston Villa averaged 47.1% possession and 15.0 shots per match (5.3 on target), a high shot volume profile. Across 10 matches, Sunderland averaged 51.7% possession and 15.4 shots (4.9 on target), a high shot volume profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

Home and away performance

In 7 recent home matches, Aston Villa recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, averaging 1.57 points, 2.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per match. Away from home, Sunderland recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in 6 matches, averaging 0.83 points, 1.33 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per match. This sample favours the home side’s recent home record relative to the away side’s road record.

This Premier League fixture takes place at Villa Park (Birmingham).

Recent results show no clear home advantage for Aston Villa: 1.6 points per home match compared with 2.0 away, with performance varying between matches.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.74 — 1.45 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

144%Aston Villa
X25%Draw
231%Sunderland
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes64%
No36%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 83%U 17%
O/U 2.5O 62%U 38%
O/U 3.5O 39%U 61%
O/U 4.5O 22%U 78%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Aston Villa
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 90%

The model assigns 90% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Aston Villa.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 83%

A different goal line with 83% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 83%U 17%
1.5O 52%U 48%
2.5O 25%U 75%
3.5O 10%U 90%
Sunderland
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 94%

The model assigns 94% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Sunderland.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 77%U 23%
1.5O 42%U 58%
2.5O 18%U 82%
3.5O 6%U 94%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Aston Villa23%
Sunderland17%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Aston Villa19%
Sunderland13%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Aston Villa58%
Sunderland42%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Aston Villa
-1.5W 24%P 0%L 76%
-1W 24%P 20%L 56%
-0.5W 44%P 0%L 56%
0W 44%P 25%L 31%
+0.5W 69%P 0%L 31%
+1W 69%P 17%L 15%
+1.5W 85%P 0%L 15%
Sunderland
-1.5W 15%P 0%L 85%
-1W 15%P 17%L 69%
-0.5W 31%P 0%L 69%
0W 31%P 25%L 44%
+0.5W 56%P 0%L 44%
+1W 56%P 20%L 24%
+1.5W 76%P 0%L 24%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-111.21%
#22-19.03%
#31-27.50%
#41-06.54%
#52-26.53%
Combined Top 540.81%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Aston Villa + BTTS25%
Sunderland + BTTS19%
Draw + BTTS20%

Aston Villa Season

Rank#12
Points12
Matches Left29

Sunderland Season

Rank#20
Points5
Matches Left29

Aston Villa Last 5

Barcelona 3 - 0
Fulham 1 - 1
Manchester City 2 - 1
Viking 3 - 1
Newcastle 0 - 1

Sunderland Last 5

Dinamo Zagreb 0 - 2
Coventry 3 - 1
Leeds 0 - 0
Lech Poznan 1 - 1
Bournemouth 2 - 0

Head-to-Head

No recent meetings found.

Form Analysis

Aston Villa
W W W D L
Sunderland
L D D L L

Aston Villa Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.14
Goals scored15
Goals conceded8
Matches7
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.14

Sunderland Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.33
Goals scored8
Goals conceded13
Matches6
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)2.17

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Aston Villa
2.17
Sunderland
1.09

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Aston Villa vs Sunderland is a Premier League football match on November 21, 2026 at Villa Park. Recent form is 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses (form: WWWDL) for Aston Villa and 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses (form: LDDLL) for Sunderland. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 21 Nov 2026
📍 Villa Park

Standings & Context

In the Premier League standings, Aston Villa is currently #12 with 12 points from 9 matches, while Sunderland is #20 with 5 points from 9. Recent head-to-head history: No recent head-to-head history is available for this fixture..

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Aston Villa at 2.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per home match, versus Sunderland at 1.33 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 2.17 for Aston Villa and 1.09 for Sunderland.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.