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AZ Alkmaar
D W L L L
VS
AI Predicts: 1-2
Away

Groningen
W W L D L
1X2 AZ Alkmaar 45%
O/U Over 2.5 63%
DC X2 73%
BTTS Yes 64%
OpWin AI Probabilities
AZ Alkmaar 45% Draw 23% Groningen 32%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between AZ Alkmaar and Groningen?

Our prediction for the AZ Alkmaar–Groningen match is: Groningen to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

AZ Alkmaar to win (45% confidence); over 2.5 goals (63% confidence); both teams to score: yes (64% confidence)

AZ Alkmaar

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, AZ Alkmaar scored an average of 1.40 goals and conceded 1.40 per match.

Groningen

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Groningen scored an average of 2.80 goals and conceded 2.20 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Draw or Away (X2): AZ Alkmaar scored 1.40 and conceded 1.40 per match across 5 covered games; Groningen scored 2.80 and conceded 2.20 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 3 recent recorded appearances, Weslley Patati contributed 2 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.78/10 across 3 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, B. Willumsson contributed 4 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.63/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list M. Martens for AZ Alkmaar and D. Lukkien for Groningen. The latest recorded formations are AZ Alkmaar in 4-3-3 (Nov 5, 2026) and Groningen in 4-3-3 (Nov 1, 2026). Across 10 recent matches with possession and shot data, AZ Alkmaar averaged 58.3% possession and 15.5 shots per match (5.6 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. Across 7 matches, Groningen averaged 49.3% possession and 14.4 shots (5.7 on target), a high shot volume profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

Home and away performance

In 6 recent home matches, AZ Alkmaar recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses, averaging 1.67 points, 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per match. Away from home, Groningen recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 3 matches, averaging 1.67 points, 2.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per match. These split records do not show a clear points-per-match advantage for either side.

This Eredivisie fixture takes place at AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar） (Alkmaar).

Recent results show no clear home advantage for AZ Alkmaar: 1.7 points per home match compared with 1.4 away, with performance varying between matches.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.55 — 1.61 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

136%AZ Alkmaar
X25%Draw
239%Groningen
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes64%
No36%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 83%U 17%
O/U 2.5O 61%U 39%
O/U 3.5O 39%U 61%
O/U 4.5O 21%U 79%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

AZ Alkmaar
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 93%

The model assigns 93% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for AZ Alkmaar.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 79%U 21%
1.5O 46%U 54%
2.5O 20%U 80%
3.5O 7%U 93%
Groningen
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 92%

The model assigns 92% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Groningen.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 80%U 20%
1.5O 48%U 52%
2.5O 22%U 78%
3.5O 8%U 92%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

AZ Alkmaar20%
Groningen21%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

AZ Alkmaar15%
Groningen16%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

AZ Alkmaar48%
Groningen52%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

AZ Alkmaar
-1.5W 18%P 0%L 82%
-1W 18%P 18%L 64%
-0.5W 36%P 0%L 64%
0W 36%P 25%L 39%
+0.5W 61%P 0%L 39%
+1W 61%P 19%L 20%
+1.5W 80%P 0%L 20%
Groningen
-1.5W 20%P 0%L 80%
-1W 20%P 19%L 61%
-0.5W 39%P 0%L 61%
0W 39%P 25%L 36%
+0.5W 64%P 0%L 36%
+1W 64%P 18%L 18%
+1.5W 82%P 0%L 18%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-111.39%
#21-28.51%
#32-18.17%
#42-26.60%
#50-16.18%
Combined Top 540.85%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

AZ Alkmaar + BTTS21%
Groningen + BTTS23%
Draw + BTTS20%

AZ Alkmaar Season

Rank#5
Points20
Matches Left27

Groningen Season

Rank#8
Points15
Matches Left27

AZ Alkmaar Last 5

Juventus 1 - 2
Ajax 1 - 0
Twente 0 - 2
Ararat-Armenia 0 - 4
Cambuur 2 - 2

Groningen Last 5

Sparta Rotterdam 2 - 3
NEC Nijmegen 2 - 2
Ajax 2 - 5
Excelsior 1 - 5
PEC Zwolle 3 - 0

Head-to-Head

AZ Alkmaar: 3 Draws: 1 Groningen: 1
2026 Groningen 3 - 0 AZ Alkmaar
2025 AZ Alkmaar 4 - 1 Groningen
2025 AZ Alkmaar 3 - 0 Groningen
2024 AZ Alkmaar 3 - 1 Groningen
2024 Groningen 0 - 0 AZ Alkmaar

Form Analysis

AZ Alkmaar
D W L L L
Groningen
W W L D L

AZ Alkmaar Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.67
Goals scored10
Goals conceded8
Matches6
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.33

Groningen Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.67
Goals scored8
Goals conceded4
Matches3
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.33

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

AZ Alkmaar
1.36
Groningen
1.89

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen is a Eredivisie football match on November 8, 2026 at AFAS Stadion. Recent form is 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses (form: DWLLL) for AZ Alkmaar and 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses (form: WWLDL) for Groningen. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 8 Nov 2026
📍 AFAS Stadion

Standings & Context

In the Eredivisie standings, AZ Alkmaar is currently #5 with 20 points from 11 matches, while Groningen is #8 with 15 points from 11. Recent head-to-head history: AZ Alkmaar won 3, 1 were drawn and Groningen won 1 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows AZ Alkmaar at 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per home match, versus Groningen at 2.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.36 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.89 for Groningen.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.