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Cruzeiro
W L W W W
VS
AI Predicts: 1-0
Away

Palmeiras
W W W D W
1X2 Cruzeiro 47%
O/U Under 2.5 69%
DC 1X 86%
BTTS Yes 57%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Cruzeiro 47% Draw 25% Palmeiras 28%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Cruzeiro and Palmeiras?

Our prediction for the Cruzeiro–Palmeiras match is: Cruzeiro to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Cruzeiro to win (47% confidence); under 2.5 goals (69% confidence); both teams to score: yes (57% confidence)

Cruzeiro

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Cruzeiro scored an average of 2.20 goals and conceded 1.60 per match.

Palmeiras

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Palmeiras scored an average of 2.80 goals and conceded 0.40 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Home or Draw (1X): Cruzeiro scored 2.20 and conceded 1.60 per match across 5 covered games; Palmeiras scored 2.80 and conceded 0.40 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Kaio Jorge contributed 6 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.72/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, José Manuel López contributed 1 goal(s) and 3 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.95/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list Leonardo Jardim for Cruzeiro and Abel Ferreira for Palmeiras. The latest recorded formations are Cruzeiro in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 6, 2026) and Palmeiras in 3-4-2-1 (Nov 5, 2026). Across 9 recent matches with possession and shot data, Cruzeiro averaged 54.0% possession and 16.6 shots per match (6.8 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. Across 9 matches, Palmeiras averaged 54.0% possession and 19.6 shots (7.2 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

Home and away performance

In 4 recent home matches, Cruzeiro recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses, averaging 3.00 points, 2.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per match. Away from home, Palmeiras recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses in 5 matches, averaging 1.40 points, 0.60 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per match. This sample favours the home side’s recent home record relative to the away side’s road record.

This Serie A fixture takes place at Estádio Mineirão (Belo Horizonte).

Recent results show that Cruzeiro have a stronger record at home than away: 4 wins in 4 home matches, averaging 3.0 points per home match compared with 1.5 away. This points to a positive home-performance trend.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.54 — 1.28 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

143%Cruzeiro
X26%Draw
231%Palmeiras
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes57%
No43%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 78%U 22%
O/U 2.5O 53%U 47%
O/U 3.5O 31%U 69%
O/U 4.5O 16%U 84%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Cruzeiro
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 93%

The model assigns 93% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Cruzeiro.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 79%U 21%
1.5O 46%U 54%
2.5O 20%U 80%
3.5O 7%U 93%
Palmeiras
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 96%

The model assigns 96% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Palmeiras.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 86%

A different goal line with 86% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 72%U 28%
1.5O 36%U 64%
2.5O 14%U 86%
3.5O 4%U 96%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Cruzeiro28%
Palmeiras21%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Cruzeiro21%
Palmeiras15%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Cruzeiro58%
Palmeiras42%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Cruzeiro
-1.5W 22%P 0%L 78%
-1W 22%P 21%L 57%
-0.5W 43%P 0%L 57%
0W 43%P 26%L 31%
+0.5W 69%P 0%L 31%
+1W 69%P 17%L 13%
+1.5W 87%P 0%L 13%
Palmeiras
-1.5W 13%P 0%L 87%
-1W 13%P 17%L 69%
-0.5W 31%P 0%L 69%
0W 31%P 26%L 43%
+0.5W 57%P 0%L 43%
+1W 57%P 21%L 22%
+1.5W 78%P 0%L 22%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-112.57%
#22-19.04%
#31-08.56%
#41-27.48%
#52-07.08%
Combined Top 544.73%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Cruzeiro + BTTS22%
Palmeiras + BTTS16%
Draw + BTTS20%

Cruzeiro Season

Rank#3
Points60
Matches Left4

Palmeiras Season

Rank#2
Points73
Matches Left4

Cruzeiro Last 5

Atletico-MG 0 - 1
Remo 1 - 0
Gremio 2 - 4
RB Bragantino 4 - 2
Sao Paulo 2 - 0

Palmeiras Last 5

Remo 6 - 1
Santos 0 - 0
RB Bragantino 2 - 0
Atletico Paranaense 0 - 2
Corinthians 4 - 1

Head-to-Head

Cruzeiro: 1 Draws: 2 Palmeiras: 2
2026 Palmeiras 1 - 1 Cruzeiro
2025 Palmeiras 0 - 0 Cruzeiro
2025 Cruzeiro 2 - 1 Palmeiras
2024 Cruzeiro 1 - 2 Palmeiras
2024 Palmeiras 2 - 0 Cruzeiro

Form Analysis

Cruzeiro
W W W W L
Palmeiras
W D W W W

Cruzeiro Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.76
Goals scored30
Goals conceded18
Matches17
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.06

Palmeiras Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.53
Goals scored26
Goals conceded12
Matches17
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.71

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Cruzeiro
1.39
Palmeiras
0.56

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras is a Brasileirão football match on November 18, 2026 at Mineirão. Recent form is 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses (form: WWWWL) for Cruzeiro and 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses (form: WDWWW) for Palmeiras. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 18 Nov 2026
📍 Mineirão

Standings & Context

In the Brasileirão standings, Cruzeiro is currently #3 with 60 points from 34 matches, while Palmeiras is #2 with 73 points from 34. Recent head-to-head history: Cruzeiro won 1, 2 were drawn and Palmeiras won 2 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Cruzeiro at 1.76 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per home match, versus Palmeiras at 1.53 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.39 for Cruzeiro and 0.56 for Palmeiras.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.