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Estrela
D L L L L
VS
AI Predicts: 0-2
Away

Benfica
W W W W W
1X2 Benfica 55%
O/U Over 2.5 69%
DC X2 91%
BTTS Yes 62%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Estrela 20% Draw 24% Benfica 55%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Estrela and Benfica?

Our prediction for the Estrela–Benfica match is: Benfica to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Benfica to win (55% confidence); over 2.5 goals (69% confidence); both teams to score: yes (62% confidence)

Estrela

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Estrela scored an average of 0.80 goals and conceded 2.00 per match.

Benfica

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Benfica scored an average of 2.80 goals and conceded 0.80 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Draw or Away (X2): Estrela scored 0.80 and conceded 2.00 per match across 5 covered games; Benfica scored 2.80 and conceded 0.80 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, A. Marcus contributed 2 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.81/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, G. Prestianni contributed 3 goal(s) and 3 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.74/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Benfica records a mean of 6.84/10 versus 6.34/10 for Estrela.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list C. Bacci for Estrela and Marco Silva for Benfica. The latest recorded formations are Estrela in 4-2-3-1 (Oct 31, 2026) and Benfica in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 5, 2026). Across 7 recent matches with possession and shot data, Estrela averaged 53.3% possession and 14.1 shots per match (3.7 on target), a high shot volume profile. Across 10 matches, Benfica averaged 61.5% possession and 18.6 shots (6.3 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. The clearest contrast in this sample is shot production.

Home and away performance

In 4 recent home matches, Estrela recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses, averaging 1.00 points, 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per match. Away from home, Benfica recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses in 5 matches, averaging 2.40 points, 2.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match. The away side’s recent road record compares favourably with the home side’s home record.

This Primeira Liga fixture takes place at Estadio Jose Gomes (Amadora).

Recent results show no clear home advantage for Estrela: 1.0 points per home match compared with 1.0 away, with performance varying between matches.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.36 — 1.76 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

129%Estrela
X25%Draw
246%Benfica
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes62%
No38%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 83%U 18%
O/U 2.5O 60%U 40%
O/U 3.5O 38%U 62%
O/U 4.5O 21%U 79%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Estrela
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 95%

The model assigns 95% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Estrela.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 84%

A different goal line with 84% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 74%U 26%
1.5O 39%U 61%
2.5O 16%U 84%
3.5O 5%U 95%
Benfica
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 90%

The model assigns 90% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Benfica.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 83%

A different goal line with 83% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 83%U 17%
1.5O 52%U 48%
2.5O 26%U 74%
3.5O 10%U 90%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Estrela17%
Benfica26%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Estrela12%
Benfica21%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Estrela39%
Benfica61%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Estrela
-1.5W 13%P 0%L 87%
-1W 13%P 16%L 71%
-0.5W 29%P 0%L 71%
0W 29%P 25%L 46%
+0.5W 54%P 0%L 46%
+1W 54%P 21%L 25%
+1.5W 75%P 0%L 25%
Benfica
-1.5W 25%P 0%L 75%
-1W 25%P 21%L 54%
-0.5W 46%P 0%L 54%
0W 46%P 25%L 29%
+0.5W 71%P 0%L 29%
+1W 71%P 16%L 13%
+1.5W 87%P 0%L 13%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-111.35%
#21-29.27%
#32-17.18%
#40-17.14%
#50-26.80%
Combined Top 541.74%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Estrela + BTTS17%
Benfica + BTTS26%
Draw + BTTS20%

Estrela Season

Rank#12
Points10
Matches Left24

Benfica Season

Rank#2
Points25
Matches Left24

Estrela Last 5

Moreirense 2 - 1
Casa Pia 0 - 2
Arouca 1 - 0
Academico Viseu 0 - 2
Rio Ave 3 - 3

Benfica Last 5

Lech Poznan 3 - 1
Alverca 1 - 0
Santa Clara 1 - 2
Omonia Nicosia 1 - 4
Celtic 4 - 1

Head-to-Head

Estrela: 0 Draws: 0 Benfica: 5
2026 Benfica 4 - 0 Estrela
2025 Estrela 0 - 1 Benfica
2025 Estrela 2 - 3 Benfica
2024 Benfica 7 - 0 Estrela
2024 Benfica 1 - 0 Estrela

Form Analysis

Estrela
D L L L L
Benfica
W W W W W

Estrela Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.00
Goals scored4
Goals conceded7
Matches4
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.75

Benfica Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.80
Goals scored14
Goals conceded5
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.00

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Estrela
0.89
Benfica
2.78

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Estrela vs Benfica is a Primeira Liga football match on November 8, 2026 at Campo Municipal dos Prazeres. Recent form is 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses (form: DLLLL) for Estrela and 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses (form: WWWWW) for Benfica. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 8 Nov 2026
📍 Campo Municipal dos Prazeres

Standings & Context

In the Primeira Liga standings, Estrela is currently #12 with 10 points from 10 matches, while Benfica is #2 with 25 points from 10. Recent head-to-head history: Estrela won 0, 0 were drawn and Benfica won 5 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Estrela at 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per home match, versus Benfica at 2.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 0.89 for Estrela and 2.78 for Benfica.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.