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Newcastle
L L W L D
VS
AI Predicts: 0-1
Away

Arsenal
D W W W W
1X2 Arsenal 38%
O/U Under 2.5 61%
DC X2 79%
BTTS Yes 58%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Newcastle 37% Draw 25% Arsenal 38%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Newcastle and Arsenal?

Our prediction for the Newcastle–Arsenal match is: Arsenal to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Arsenal to win (38% confidence); under 2.5 goals (61% confidence); both teams to score: yes (58% confidence)

Newcastle

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Newcastle scored an average of 0.80 goals and conceded 1.40 per match.

Arsenal

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Arsenal scored an average of 1.60 goals and conceded 0.60 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Draw or Away (X2): Newcastle scored 0.80 and conceded 1.40 per match across 5 covered games; Arsenal scored 1.60 and conceded 0.60 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 4 recent recorded appearances, J. Murphy contributed 1 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.04/10 across 4 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, V. Gyökeres contributed 1 goal(s) and 3 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.04/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current record lists E. Howe as coach of Newcastle. The latest recorded formations are Newcastle in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 7, 2026) and Arsenal in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 7, 2026). Across 8 recent matches with possession and shot data, Newcastle averaged 52.6% possession and 12.3 shots per match (3.5 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. Across 12 matches, Arsenal averaged 58.7% possession and 14.8 shots (5.5 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

Home and away performance

In 4 recent home matches, Newcastle recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses, averaging 1.00 points, 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per match. Away from home, Arsenal recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses in 8 matches, averaging 2.38 points, 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per match. The away side’s recent road record compares favourably with the home side’s home record.

This Premier League fixture takes place at St. James' Park (Newcastle).

Recent results show no clear home advantage for Newcastle: 1.0 points per home match compared with 1.4 away, with performance varying between matches.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.32 — 1.53 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

132%Newcastle
X26%Draw
241%Arsenal
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes58%
No42%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 78%U 22%
O/U 2.5O 54%U 46%
O/U 3.5O 32%U 68%
O/U 4.5O 16%U 84%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Newcastle
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 96%

The model assigns 96% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Newcastle.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 85%

A different goal line with 85% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 73%U 27%
1.5O 38%U 62%
2.5O 15%U 85%
3.5O 4%U 96%
Arsenal
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 93%

The model assigns 93% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Arsenal.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 78%U 22%
1.5O 45%U 55%
2.5O 20%U 80%
3.5O 7%U 93%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Newcastle22%
Arsenal27%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Newcastle15%
Arsenal20%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Newcastle44%
Arsenal56%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Newcastle
-1.5W 14%P 0%L 86%
-1W 14%P 18%L 68%
-0.5W 32%P 0%L 68%
0W 32%P 26%L 41%
+0.5W 59%P 0%L 41%
+1W 59%P 21%L 21%
+1.5W 79%P 0%L 21%
Arsenal
-1.5W 21%P 0%L 79%
-1W 21%P 21%L 59%
-0.5W 41%P 0%L 59%
0W 41%P 26%L 32%
+0.5W 68%P 0%L 32%
+1W 68%P 18%L 14%
+1.5W 86%P 0%L 14%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-112.60%
#21-28.91%
#30-18.17%
#42-17.69%
#51-06.96%
Combined Top 544.33%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Newcastle + BTTS17%
Arsenal + BTTS21%
Draw + BTTS20%

Newcastle Season

Rank#11
Points12
Matches Left28

Arsenal Season

Rank#1
Points27
Matches Left28

Newcastle Last 5

Fulham 1 - 1
Everton 0 - 1
Crystal Palace 0 - 2
Aston Villa 0 - 1
Coventry 4 - 1

Arsenal Last 5

Hull City 1 - 0
Slavia Praha 1 - 2
Liverpool 0 - 1
Everton 2 - 0
Bayern München 2 - 2

Head-to-Head

No recent meetings found.

Form Analysis

Newcastle
L L W L D
Arsenal
D W W W W

Newcastle Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.00
Goals scored4
Goals conceded5
Matches4
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.25

Arsenal Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.25
Goals scored10
Goals conceded6
Matches8
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.75

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Newcastle
0.82
Arsenal
1.43

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Newcastle vs Arsenal is a Premier League football match on November 21, 2026 at St James' Park. Recent form is 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses (form: LLWLD) for Newcastle and 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses (form: DWWWW) for Arsenal. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 21 Nov 2026
📍 St James' Park

Standings & Context

In the Premier League standings, Newcastle is currently #11 with 12 points from 10 matches, while Arsenal is #1 with 27 points from 10. Recent head-to-head history: No recent head-to-head history is available for this fixture..

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Newcastle at 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per home match, versus Arsenal at 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 0.82 for Newcastle and 1.43 for Arsenal.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.